21/02/2020 17:56 |
EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A. informs: Results presentation 2019 |
INFORMATION REGLEMENTEE
Lisbon, February 21st 2020
This document has been prepared by EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A. (the "Company") solely for use at the presentation to be made on this date and its purpose is merely of informative nature and, as such, it may be amended and supplemented. By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading the presentation slides, you acknowledge and agree to be bound by the following limitations and restrictions. Therefore, this presentation may not be distributed to the press or to any other person in any jurisdiction, and may not be reproduced in any form, in whole or in part for any other purpose without the express and prior consent in writing of the Company. This presentation and all materials, documents and information used therein or distributed to investors in the context of this presentation do not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer (public or private) to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer (public or private) to buy or acquire securities of the Company or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation nor any materials, documents and information used therein or distributed to investors in the context of this presentation or any part thereof, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever and may not be used in the future in connection with any offer (public or private) in relation to securities issued by the Company. Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements other than in respect of historical facts. The words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intends,” “estimate,” “will,” “may”, "continue," “should” and similar expressions usually identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends; energy demand and supply; developments of the Company’s markets; the impact of legal and regulatory initiatives; and the strength of the Company’s competitors. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of historical operating trends, data contained in the Company’s records and other data available from third parties. Although the Company believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. Important factors that may lead to significant differences between the actual results and the statements of expectations about future events or results include the company’s business strategy, financial strategy, national and international economic conditions, technology, legal and regulatory conditions, public service industry developments, hydrological conditions, cost of raw materials, financial market conditions, uncertainty of the results of future operations, plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, among others. Such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company or industry results to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward-looking statements. The information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as at the date of this presentation, and are subject to change without notice unless required by applicable law. The Company and its respective directors, representatives, employees and/or advisors do not intend to, and expressly disclaim any duty, undertaking or obligation to, make or disseminate any supplement, amendment, update or revision to any of the information, opinions or forward-looking statements contained in this presentation to reflect any change in events, conditions or circumstances. RESULTS PRESENTATION 2 3 4Q19 Highlights 2019 Figures Hydro volumes Portugal +56% vs. historical avg. Good results in energy management in Iberia Gain in asset rotation in Brazil (cashed-in Feb-20) Continuing growth in networks in Brazil Interest costs started downwards trend in 4Q19 Net debt Dec-19: €13.8 Bn, +3% YoY RESULTS PRESENTATION 4 EDP Hydro production in Iberia EDP Wind production TWh TWh 13.7 29.8 28.1 4Q 10.0 +56% in 4Q19 vs. Historical average1 9M -39% in 9M19 vs. Historical average1 2018 2019 2018 2019 Hydro resources Wind resources vs. LT Avg.1 vs. LT Avg. (P50) Hydro reservoir 0.4 TWh above Avg. Load factor YE (TWh) historical average 1) Hydro resources reference from Portugal only RESULTS PRESENTATION 5 EBITDA 2019 € Mn; YoY growth,% ∆ YoY 3,706 3,317 +€348 Mn Wind & Solar -€159 Mn Hydro Iberia 2,286 -€100 Mn Hydro Brazil Renewables 2,197 +€7 Mn Iberia Networks +€154 Mn Brazil 991 831 Client solutions +€199 Mn Iberia & EM 474 -€37 Mn Brazil 312 -23 -46 Other/adjust 2018 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION 6 EBITDA – Wind & Solar € Mn; YoY growth,% 1,648 2018 2019 YoY Avg. Installed Capacity1, GW 1,300 914 Production vs. LT Avg. (P50), % Europe 651 Electricity Production, TWh Avg. selling price, €/MWh 615 North America 654 Asset Rotation Gains, € Mn 120 -6 Brazil & Other 2018 2019 1) Considers capacity at EBITDA level RESULTS PRESENTATION 7 EBITDA – Hydro € Mn; YoY growth, % 2018 2019 YoY Hydro Production, TWh 896 Avg selling price1, €/MWh 638 Portugal 583 2018 2019 YoY 440 Physical Guarantee, TWh Spain 41 Avg selling price, $R/MWh 25 Brazil 273 173 Gain on mini-hydro sale, € Mn 2018 2019 1) Does not consider results from hedging RESULTS PRESENTATION 8 EBITDA – Networks € Mn; YoY growth,% 2018 2019 YoY Return on RAB Portugal 1, % 991 Return on RAB Spain, % 831 RAB Iberia, €Mn 477 Opex Iberia2, €Mn Portugal4 481 155 2018 2019 YoY Spain 145 RAB distribution3, € Mn 360 Brazil4 206 Transmission EBITDA, € Mn 2018 2019 Electricity distributed, TWh 1) RoRAB of HV/MV | 2) Excludes IFRS16 impact of €6 Mn| 3) Accounting RAB as of Dec-19 | 4) The overall impact of one-off on EBITDA growth was immaterial: (i) in 2019, €28 Mn provision for the amounts to return to the tariff, €31 Mn gain related with a change in future liabilities arising from a change in health care services supplier and restructuring costs (€12 Mn) mainly in Portugal; (ii) In 2018, restructuring costs (€17 Mn) RESULTS PRESENTATION 9 EBITDA – Client Solutions & Energy Management € Mn; YoY growth,% Better results from energy management and forward hedging in energy markets, mostly in 4Q ∆ YoY 474 Coal production -49% YoY (18% avg load factor in 4Q19) Normalization of supply margins in Iberia, following a particularly adverse 2018 248 312 # of clients complains in supply: -23% YoY Thermal & EM Iberia 142 2018 2019 YoY 88 Thermal availability, % Thermal Brazil 135 114 ADOMP1, € Mn Supply & EM Brazil 40 25 -5 Supply Iberia Supply volumes, TWh 2018 2019 1) One-off revenues from the downwards revision of the regulatory level of the availability factor. This amount is net of PIS/COFINS RESULTS PRESENTATION 10 Change in Net Debt: Dec-19 vs. Dec-18, € Bn New Hybrid (50% equity): -€0.5 Bn Reg. Receivables and related taxes: €0.2 Bn Pension fund extraord. contribution: €0.2 Bn 13.8 +20% YoY -0.1 13.5 0.7 -1.4 1.2 50% of Recurring Organic CF +€2.1 Bn expansion investment (70% renewables, 29% networks) -€1.0 Asset Rotation renewables Net Debt Recurring Organic Net expansion Dividends to Other & One-off Net Debt Dec-18 Cash Flow investment Shareholders Dec-19 1) Based on net debt excluding regulatory receivables and on recurring EBITDA of the last 12 months. Excludes €829 Mn related with Leasings’ debt accounted as Other Liabilities (IFRS 16 impact) RESULTS PRESENTATION 11 Avg nominal debt by currency3 Net Financial Costs: 2019 vs. 2018 € Mn +2% 2% 4% Other 11% 9% 685 BR L 671 670 14 15 USD 25% 117 29% 554 +€17 Mn 9M19 Euro denominated -€3 Mn 4Q19 Hybrid: 11% in 2019 vs 5% in 2018 EUR 62% 58% 2018 Non- 2018 adj. Interest 2019 adj. Non- 2019 2018 2019 1 interest2 interest related impacted by €1 Bn hybrid bond issue in Jan-19 and higher avg. weight of USD & BRL 1) Other items in 2018 includes: +€18 Mn of badwill arising from the acquisition of a stake in Celesc, -€39 Mn debt repayment, +€113 Mn of Capital Gains, -€5 Mn of Net foreign exchange differences and derivatives and +€30 Mn pro-forma impact from IFRS 16 | 2) Other items in 2019 are related with -€19 Mn Net foreign exchange differences and derivatives, €31 Mn Feedzai gain and €3 Mn of capital gains | 3) Includes FX Hedges RESULTS PRESENTATION 12 Reported Net Profit Bridge 2019 € Mn One-Off1 Items Net Profit Breakdown 2019 € Mn EBITDA 3,706 -11 512 D&A and 64 1,867 -3 9 9 Provisions EBIT 1,838 -4 0 9 Fin. Results & 392 645 +40 Associates 2nd year with negative results, +103 226 Income Taxes penalized by low hydro conditions and Extraordinary one-off items: -68 68 Energy Tax 153 Coal impairments (€94 Mn) Non-controlling -8 388 interest -98 Fridão provision (€59 Mn) -3 4 2 512 Net Profit 1) One-offs impacts at net profit level: 2018: regulatory impacts (-€208 Mn), impairments at coal plants in Iberia (-€21 Mn), restructuring costs (-€21 Mn), net gain on disposals (mini-hydros: +€40 Mn; Bioelectrica: +€24 Mn), debt prepayment fees and others (-€26 Mn) and CESE (-€65 Mn); in 2019: impairments (-€224 Mn, mainly coal in Iberia), provision for Fridão (-€59 Mn), gain on the revaluation of Feedzai and provision reversal at São Manoel (+€28 Mn), sharing of some gains with consumers (-€22 Mn), restructuring costs (-€8 Mn), Medical plan Brazil (+€10 Mn), CESE (-€66 Mn). RESULTS PRESENTATION 13 Recurring1 Net Profit 2019 € Mn ∆ YoY 854 797 Portugal: Turnaround of supply operations; 123 Hydro production -28% YoY 285 186 137 EDPR all time record reported net profit +52% YoY 404 263 EDP Brasil all time record reported net profit +5% YoY in BRL 141 111 2018 2019 1) One-offs impacts at net profit level: 2018: regulatory impacts (-€208 Mn), impairments at coal plants in Iberia (-€21 Mn), restructuring costs (-€21 Mn), net gain on disposals (mini-hydros: +€40 Mn; Bioelectrica: +€24 Mn), debt prepayment fees and others (-€26 Mn) and CESE (-€65 Mn); in 2019: impairments (-€224 Mn, mainly coal in Iberia), provision for Fridão (-€59 Mn), gain on the revaluation of Feedzai and provision reversal at São Manoel (+€28 Mn), sharing of some gains with consumers (-€22 Mn), restructuring costs (-€8 Mn), Medical plan Brazil (+€10 Mn), CESE (-€66 Mn). RESULTS PRESENTATION 14 15 12th Mar 20th Feb RESULTS PRESENTATION 16 Renewables Capacity LT Projects already secured Unprecedent execution contracts secured for 19-22 GW Build-out GW; Feb-20 Leadership position in securing LT offshore contracts in 2019-20 solar 5.4 GW 1.6 GW1 of PPA secured in the 5.4 wind US #1 awarded in Poland & Italy 1.8 auctions 0.3 1.4 1.3 2.9 1.2 Increased market position in 0.6 2.5 76% 0.4 wind in Brazil to #4 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.3 40% 35% 1.0 1.0 0.7 Expansion to new geographies 0.5 Colombia (0.5 GW) & Greece Dec-18 Mar-19 Feb-20 2019 2020 2021 2022 post-2022 (0.1 GW) 1) Gross capacity RESULTS PRESENTATION 17 Selective screening process of investment projects... … achieving risk/return discipline Achieved1 Threshold Expansion Capex opportunities analyzed in 2019 at top decision-making level IRR/WACC Attractive returns approved and successful … NPV/CAPEX … in projects located in geographies Contracted … totalling of renewables to be period Sound contracted deployed in 2020-24 profile and time to cash Contracted NPV 1) Average of successful projects analyzed in Investment Committee in 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION 18 US: Federal and State-level incentives: PTC extension (60% up to 2024) 10.8 GW of wind & solar assets in Continued decline in LCOE operation in 10 geographies Renewable Portfolio Standards (13 Hybrid projects: hydro/solar/wind States enacted RPS targets in 2019) Development teams with extensive track Wind repowering record EU: Green deal launched by the EC Offshore fixed/floating Procurement and O&M scale in (€1 Trl investment plan): renewables Green hydrogen 2030: Emissions at least -50% vs. 1990 New markets under analysis Storage 2050 carbon neutrality Potential increase of renewable targets RESULTS PRESENTATION 19 JV Offshore capacity Portfolio description GW Gross 10-17 5-10 5.2 3.7 5-7 1.5 2019 2025E Under development Under construction/installed 1) Final terms agreed, awaiting EC clearance RESULTS PRESENTATION 20 EBITDA from distribution Brazil 1 R$ Mn Regulatory reviews in 2019 (visibility up to Aug-22 for EDP ES and Oct-23 for EDP SP) Net RAB Growth: + 36% REAL GAINS of + 35-45% 1,393 R$ 234 Mn RAB Return on RAB at 8.09% update +25% R$ 134 Mn Regulatory haircut over investments <0.5% (#1 in Brazil) +35% employees +40% benefits 887 2 Electricity demand in 2019 (+2.3% in EDPB vs 1.1% in Brazil) 1,025 3 2018 Regulated Market Efficiency 2022 2019 Reduction of losses (-1.24pp in EDP SP and -0.23pp in ESP ES1) Revenues Greater efficiency in costs vs the Regulatory target 1 2 3 (2019 as a transitional year in the strategy of insourcing of O&M services) 1) Non-technical losses in Low Voltage RESULTS PRESENTATION 21 Transmission portfolio EBITDA from transmission in Brazil R$ Mn 91% 203 km Partial COD 11 53% Jan-20 123 km 7 COD Apr-21E 231 100% 113 km 24 49% 30 COD Dec-18 375 km COD Mar-21E 18 2018 2019 2022 52% 485 km 142 km 21 COD Dec-20E Q COD Dec-21E Under licensing % of completion RESULTS PRESENTATION 22 Clients Stable Client Base Supply EBITDA Electricity and gas supply points Iberia € Mn Focus on service quality Complaints YoY >100 to retain high value clients # complaints/ 1k contracts Iberia ~90 Services contracted with clients Increase services penetration 18.9% Homecare Services/contracts Selfcare Portugal Increased digitalization Decentralized solar sold capacity in Iberia & Brazil ~-5 New client solutions Contracted public charging points 2018 2019 2022 # Iberia & Brazil Savings from energy efficiency In the bill of our B2B clients in Portugal RESULTS PRESENTATION 23 Proceeds from asset rotation € Bn Positive outlook supported by low interest rate context and strong appetite from investors for infrastructure/renewables assets: 2020: Target deals in the US and Europe (~0.7 GW net) 2 deals agreed, with better than expected results: >25% Europe: 997 MW wind portfolio (491 MW net), EV €1.6 Mn/MW, €0.8 Bn proceeds Brazil: 137 MW (Babilónia), EV €2.2 Mn/MW (closed in Feb-20), €0.3 Bn proceeds 2019-22 RESULTS PRESENTATION 24 ... while other complementary options may still be considered Disposal of 25% of hydro portfolio in Iberia: €2.2 Bn for 1.7 GW in Portugal... Hydro disposal rationale Transaction multiple: (positive read across of remaining hydro assets) Derisking: market price exposure and concentration of hydro volatility Expected financial closing in 2H20 All necessary regulatory requests were already submitted The carve out of the assets and the transitional agreements are under preparation RESULTS PRESENTATION 25 Weight on Opex Operations Indicator YoY Change Highlights Iberia Predictive maintenance generation up from 34% to 68% Opex1 +34% smart meters in Portugal EDP Brasil Avg. Inflation: +3.7%2 Opex1 in BRL EDPR Avg MW +1% Adj. Core Opex1/MW3 Predictive maintenance up to 67% Opex ex-forex1 -€20 Mn OPEX YoY on a like-for-like basis Opex like-for-like (excl. growth) 1) Recurring Opex Pro-forma (excludes IFRS16 impact); 2) Avg. IPCA 2019 vs. 2018; 3) Core Opex/Avg MW adjusted by IFRS16, One-offs, pass-through costs and FX RESULTS PRESENTATION 26 % of EBITDA Net Debt / EBITDA Contracted exposure 4.0x 3.6x <3.2x <3.0x 2018 2019 2020 post-disposal 2018 2019 2020 2022 RESULTS PRESENTATION 27 Most recent EDP consolidated debt maturities in 2020-2022 Market yields of 5y EDP Bonds, % (Jan 2019-Feb 2020)1 bond deals € Bn and bonds’ coupon rate EUR2 USD3 Sep-19: €600 Mn 3.2 Other debt4 USD 5 green bond issued BRL EUR (0.43% yield) ∆ Jan19-Feb20 4 3 Jan-20: €750 Mn 2.3% 1.7 4.1% green hybrid bond 1.4 2 issued (1.75% yield) 4.9% 6.0% 1 5.3% 4.1% 1Q20: Repurchase and 0.1% 2.6% clean-up call of the 0 5.4% 4.1% 2015 €750 Mn hybrid Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Feb (5.375% coupon) -1 20205 2021 2022 1) As of 14/02/2020 | 2) EDPPL 1.125 02/12/2024 REGS Corp | 3) EDPPL 3.625 07/15/2024 144A Corp | 4) Includes commercial paper and project finance | 5) Includes the €750 Mn hybrid issued in 2015 (5.375% coupon) that was repurchased in 1Q2020 RESULTS PRESENTATION 28 Recurring Organic Cash Flow Uses of cash € Bn € Bn 2021-22E 2019-20E >12 ~3 1.4 ~2 1.2 >8 0.8 Sources of Cash Dividends Deleverage Net investments 2017 2018 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION 29 Aboño 1 will be 628 gCO2 / kWh 2005 2005 20% converted to gas Aboño 1&2 (0.9 GW) (COD 2022); Aboño Soto 3 (0.3 GW) 2 as a backup 2019 2019 66% -66% No production since Jun-19 2025 2025 Shutdown up to 2023, conditional on positive Sines (1.2 GW) margins 2030 2030 Coal production in Iberia 2019: -49% YoY 2019 Performance: Penalized by weak hydro resources in Portugal RESULTS PRESENTATION 30 Global Global 1 Global Integrated Utilities Integrated Utilities Utilities (Score 4.7) Global Utilities (Score 68) (Score 90) 1) Bloomberg; | 2) In 2018 Sustainalytcs has launched the ESG Risk Rating methodology and replaced the ESG Rating methodology. EDP overall Risk Rating in February 2020 was 24.95. RESULTS PRESENTATION 31 EBITDA Recurring Net profit Dividend € Bn € Bn € / share 81% payout ratio 0.19 3.7 0.9 Target payout range Dividend floor 20191 2019 2020E 2022E 2019 2020E 2022E 2020-22E 1) Proposal of dividend, subject to AGM approval RESULTS PRESENTATION 32 IR Contacts E-mail: ir@edp.com Phone +351 210 012 834 Site: www.edp.com Next Events Feb 26-28th: US and Canada Roadshow Mar 6th: Zurique Roadshow Apr 16th: General Shareholders’ Meeting Mar 4-5th: London Roadshow Mar 6th : Paris Roadshow May 7th: 1Q20 Results Mar 5th: Madrid Roadshow Mar 18th: London Roadshow (Eiffel Conf.) RESULTS PRESENTATION 33 |